This AMOC tipping event causes a substantial shift of the global climate. It is therefore important to assess the risk of such an event under future climate change, but this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. A robust indicator is developed, that accurately predicts the onset of an AMOC tipping event and works under different forcing configurations and for different climate model simulations. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the likelihood of an AMOC tipping event occurring in the century is high and reduces for lower emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5). If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. During that transition, the Northwestern European climate would change drastically and is expected to see colder winters, less rainfall, and more severe winter storms.
There is a growing risk that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapses to a significantly weaker state under climate change, researchers write in the Research Article “Physics-Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change“.
This AMOC tipping event causes a substantial shift of the global climate. It is therefore important to assess the risk of such an event under future climate change, but this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. A robust indicator is developed, that accurately predicts the onset of an AMOC tipping event and works under different forcing configurations and for different climate model simulations. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the likelihood of an AMOC tipping event occurring in the century is high and reduces for lower emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5). If the AMOC starts to collapse, it takes more than 100 years to reach a substantially weaker state. During that transition, the Northwestern European climate would change drastically and is expected to see colder winters, less rainfall, and more severe winter storms.
Links:
Gevreesd kantelpunt in de Golfstroom mogelijk al halverwege deze eeuw bereikt
Physics- based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
Gegevens