El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27 (These statements are updated once a month – 2nd Thursday of each month – in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion).

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the eastcentral and eastern Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric circulation anomalies over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are consistent with El Niño.