When the Paris Agreement was signed, in December 2015, the world was projected to reach the 1.5°Celsius (C) threshold by March 2045.

Today, on the 8th anniversary of its signature, we risk breaching that benchmark by February 2034, according to data extrapolation based on Copernicus Climate Change Service data. But many other indicators have turned red since the Paris Agreement. Time is shrinking if we want to keep the global temperatures below 1.5°C compared with the pre-industrial average. An application developed by C3S shows it very clearly. In 2015, when COP delegates signed the Paris accord, our data estimated that the global temperature was 0.98°C above the pre-industrial average and would have breached the 1.5°C threshold in 2045. Today, as delegates address the first global stocktake, a critical inventory of the Paris Agreement actions and commitments to assess the progress made, the same data estimates that we have reached a global average of 1.25°C and will be at 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels in 2034. And this extrapolation, doesn’t take into account the record temperatures of November 2023.

Links:
We’ve ‘lost’ 19 years in the battle against global warming since the Paris Agreement