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Global Climate Highlights 2023 – publication
2023 has replaced 2016 as the warmest calendar year on record; according to the ERA5 dataset, the global-average temperature for 2023 was 14.98°C, 0.17°C higher than recorded for 2016.
The year-to-year increase in global-average temperature was exceptionally large from 2022 to 2023. It follows a transition from three years of La Niña in 2020–2022 to El Niño conditions in 2023, although other factors appear to have also played a role. Further discussion is given in the section on sea surface temperature as well as in the highlight box: Was the unusual warmth of 2023 expected. The evolution of the daily global-average temperature shows that 2023 is noteworthy for the occurrence of the highest global temperatures on record, both in absolute terms, during July, and relative to the annual cycle, during November. Almost all days from the beginning of June were the warmest in the ERA5 data record for that particular day of the year. The approach of the climate system towards the 1.5°C and 2°C limits of the Paris Agreement is usually discussed for temperatures that have been averaged globally and over each year of one or more decades. Observational datasets whose coverage includes the 1850-1900 reference period have monthly resolution, however, enabling estimates to be made of the annual variation in the warming from 1850-1900 to the recent past. This provides a basis for monitoring the accumulation of daily exceedances of the warming limits using reanalysis datasets such as ERA5. Using ERA5, this monitoring shows that all days of 2023 had global temperatures more than 1°C warmer than the 1850-1900 level for that time of year. Two days were more than 2°C warmer than 1850-1900, the first time the 2°C level has been exceeded. Close to 50% of days in 2023 were in excess of 1.5°C warmer than 1850-1900. This was the case for just over 20% of days in 2016, the previous warmest year on record. The earliest period in ERA5 with daily temperatures successively at least 1.5°C warmer than 1850-1900 is 2-15 December 2015.