A data compilation of long-term energy projections from international organizations such as the IAEA and the IEA as well as energy system models like GCAM and MESSAGE, as used in the IPCC, reveal a recurring pattern of high-growth projections for nuclear power. Decades of high-growth projections for nuclear power from (inter-)national agencies and from academia can be observed. Actual development shows divergence between projections and reality. A recurring pattern of overestimation can be identified, which we call the “nuclear energy paradox”. The paradox is rooted in nuclear imaginaries like the plutonium economy and/or hopes of mass production of, e.g., SMRs. Recent energy scenarios are still driven by narratives that are based on certain nuclear imaginaries.
The paper ‘The “Nuclear Energy Paradox”- Investigating nuclear imaginaries in energy projections‘ investigates the “nuclear energy paradox” which shows the recurring divergence between historical projections and actual developments.
A data compilation of long-term energy projections from international organizations such as the IAEA and the IEA as well as energy system models like GCAM and MESSAGE, as used in the IPCC, reveal a recurring pattern of high-growth projections for nuclear power. Decades of high-growth projections for nuclear power from (inter-)national agencies and from academia can be observed. Actual development shows divergence between projections and reality. A recurring pattern of overestimation can be identified, which we call the “nuclear energy paradox”. The paradox is rooted in nuclear imaginaries like the plutonium economy and/or hopes of mass production of, e.g., SMRs. Recent energy scenarios are still driven by narratives that are based on certain nuclear imaginaries.
Links:
Warum Kernenergie scheitert • Nukleares Paradox & Falsche Prognosen?
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