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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Amsterdam:20270802T093100
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Amsterdam:20270802T144400
DTSTAMP:20260518T220610
CREATED:20260118T040223Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260118T142223Z
UID:135504-1817199060-1817217840@www.a3veen.nl
SUMMARY:Total Solar eclipse of August 2\, 2027
DESCRIPTION:The solar eclipse of August 2\, 2027\, also known as the Eclipse of the Century\, is an upcoming total solar eclipse that will occur at the Moon’s descending node of orbit on Monday\, August 2\, 2027\, with a magnitude of 1.079. \nKlik op afbeelding voor origineel\nA solar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes between Earth and the Sun\, thereby totally or partly obscuring the image of the Sun for a viewer on Earth. A total solar eclipse occurs when the Moon’s apparent diameter is larger than the Sun’s\, blocking all direct sunlight\, turning day into darkness. Totality occurs in a narrow path across Earth’s surface\, with the partial solar eclipse visible over a surrounding region thousands of kilometres wide. Occurring about 2.5 hours before perigee (on August 2\, 2027\, at 7:25 UTC)\, the Moon’s apparent diameter will be larger. \nLinks:\nTotal Solar Eclipse Map – August 2\, 2027
URL:https://www.a3veen.nl/event/total-solar-eclipse-of-august-2-2027/
CATEGORIES:Astronomie,Maan,Zon
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20290413
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20290414
DTSTAMP:20260518T220611
CREATED:20040619T112855Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250416T114408Z
UID:123274-1870732800-1870819199@www.a3veen.nl
SUMMARY:Asteroid Apophis Fly By / Apophis scheert langs de Aarde
DESCRIPTION:99942 Apophis (/əˈpɒfɪs/\, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a 370-meter diameter near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13\, 2029. \nAdditional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However\, until 2006\, a possibility remained that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth\, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole\, a small region no more than about 0.5 mile wide\, or 0.8 km that would set up a future impact exactly seven years later on April 13\, 2036. This possibility kept it at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006\, when the probability that Apophis would pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small. By 2008\, the keyhole had been determined to be less than 1 km wide. During the short time when it had been of greatest concern\, Apophis set the record for highest rating on the Torino scale\, reaching level 4 on 27 December 2004. \nAs of 2014\, the diameter of Apophis is estimated to be approximately 370 metres (1\,210 ft). Preliminary observations by Goldstone radar in January 2013 effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036. By May 6\, 2013 (April 15\, 2013 observation arc)\, the probability of an impact on April 13\, 2036 had been eliminated. Using observations through February 26\, 2014\, the odds of an impact on April 12\, 2068\, as calculated by the JPL Sentry risk table are 1 in 150\,000. As of February 2019\, there were five asteroids with a more notable cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale than Apophis. On average\, one asteroid the size of Apophis (370 metres) can be expected to impact Earth about every 80\,000 years. \nLinks:\nNear-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Reaches Highest Score To Date On Hazard Scale \nHuge Asteroid Apophis Flies By Earth on Friday the 13th in 2029. A Lucky Day for Scientists \nApophis: Asteroid doch auf Kollisionskurs? | Scientists prepare for their last good look at asteroid Apophis before 2029 flyby \nAsteroid Apophis makes a close sweep past Earth on March 5-6\, 2021 \nCan Green Bank Telescope Defend Against Asteroid Apophis? \nNASA Analysis: Earth Is Safe From Asteroid Apophis for 100-Plus Years
URL:https://www.a3veen.nl/event/asteroid-apophis-fly-by-apophis-scheert-langs-de-aarde/
CATEGORIES:Astronomie
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20321222
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20321223
DTSTAMP:20260518T220611
CREATED:20250130T074607Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250414T154954Z
UID:119632-1987286400-1987372799@www.a3veen.nl
SUMMARY:Asteroid 2024 YR4 - chance of impacting Earth
DESCRIPTION:2024 YR4 is an asteroid that is classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object\, with an estimated diameter of 40 to 90 metres. \nCalculations using the observation arc of 55 days as of 18 February 2025\, it has a rating of 3 on the Torino scale\, with a 1-in-32 (3.1%) chance of impacting Earth on 22 December 2032 around 14:02 UT\, and a rating of −0.18 on the Palermo scale\, corresponding to an impact hazard 66.1% of the background level. This is the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger. However\, on Wednesday\, Feb. 19\, new data collected overnight reduced the impact probability to 1.5%. The uncertainty region for the path of its potential impact in 2032 is 1.1 million km wide. The nominal closest approach to Earth is on the 22nd at 10:02 UT (with an uncertainty in the closest approach time of about 8 hours and being 4 hours earlier than virtual impactor) at a distance of 198\,000 kilometres (0.52 lunar distances)\, with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 356\,000 kilometres (0.926 lunar distances). The nominal closest approach to Moon is seven hours later at 16:25 UT. Due to 2024 YR4’s size and greater-than-1% impact probability\, it is rated at Torino scale level 3\, which has prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to issue a notice on 29 January 2025. This is the second-highest Torino scale rating an asteroid has ever reached\, behind 99942 Apophis which briefly ranked Torino scale level 4 in late 2004. NASA gives a Palermo scale rating of −0.18 for 2024 YR4\, which corresponds to an impact hazard of 66.1% of the background hazard level. The European Space Agency gives a Palermo scale rating of −0.20 with an impact probability of 2.81%\, while NEODyS gives −0.21 with an impact probability of 2.27%. \nThe asteroid was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024. The discovery triggered the first step in planetary-defense responses\, prompting several major telescopes to gather data about the asteroid and leading United Nations–endorsed space agencies to begin planning asteroid threat mitigation. The asteroid made a close approach to Earth at a distance of 828\,800 kilometres (2.156 lunar distances) on 25 December 2024\, two days before its discovery\, and is now moving away. Its next close approach will take place on 17 December 2028. From early April 2025 to June 2028\, the asteroid is expected to be too distant for ground-based telescopes to observe. However\, space-based infrared telescopes could continue monitoring it during some of this period; for example\, the James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe it between March and May 2025. Preliminary analysis of spectral and photometric time series suggests that 2024 YR4 is a stony S-type (most likely)\, L-type or K-type asteroid\, with a rotation period of approximately 19.5 minutes. A number of known asteroids\, including other virtual impactors\, follow orbits somewhat consistent with that of 2024 YR4. As of 23 February 2025 NASA gives Palermo scale rating of −3.45 for 2024 YR4\, which corresponds to an impact hazard of 0.08% of the background hazard level. NEODyS gives −4.38 with an impact probability of 0.000444%\, while the European Space Agency gives a Palermo scale rating of −3.55 with an impact probability of 0.00162%. \nUsing observations through 26 March 2025\, 2024 YR4 has around a 4% chance of impacting a 70% waning gibbous moon on 22 December 2032 around 15:17 to 15:21 UTC. The nominal approach to the Moon is near the impact scenario at around 15:18 UTC ± 1.5 hours at a distance of 3\,100 km (0.0081 LD) from the center of the Moon\, or about 1\,400 km above the 1\,737 km radius of the Moon\, with a 3-sigma uncertainty of 83\,000 km. The impact could create an impact crater with a diameter of 500 to 2\,000 metres wide on the lunar surface\, releasing about 5.2 megatonnes of TNT (21.8 petajoules) of energy if it were to impact the Moon at an estimated velocity of 13.9 km/s\, an explosion about 340 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The impact corridor is a line that extends through the southern parts of Mare Humorum and Mare Nubium. Michael Busch of the SETI Institute notes that an explosion on the Moon “would be very obvious to any spacecraft observing from lunar orbit” but may not be as visible to the unaided eye from Earth due to the Moon’s brightness. However\, other astronomers believe the impact could be visible from Earth. Gareth Collins suggested that “the impact flash of vaporized rock would be visible from Earth\, even in the daytime”\, while Daniel Bamberger of the Northolt Branch Observatories in London stated that the impact “could be brighter than the full moon” making it clearly visible to the naked eye. \n \nLinks:\nESA actively monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 \nNASA Shares Observations of Recently-Identified Near Earth Asteroid \n2024 YR4 – International Asteroid Warning Network \n2024 YR4 – Earth Impact Risk Summary \nKans op inslag van asteroïde 2024 YR4 op aarde steeds groter\, maar volgens deze ruimteonderzoeker hoeven we niet bang te zijn \nDark Skies Bring New Observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4\, Lower Impact Probability \nLatest Calculations Conclude Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Poses No Significant Threat to Earth in 2032 and Beyond \nThe Sky at Night – Asteroid Strike? (TV BBC Four)
URL:https://www.a3veen.nl/event/asteroid-2024-yr4-chance-of-impacting-earth/
CATEGORIES:Astronomie
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